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# Букмекер   Рейтинг Моб.
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4 Mostbet   9/10     20% от депозита
5 Лига Ставок   10/10     500 RUB
6 Fonbet   8/10     Аванс. ставка

Стратегия для букмекера


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Это значение у других букмекеров колебалось в диапазоне от 2,15 до 2, Как узнать, какой коэффициент был наиболее точным? Проверить относительную эффективность выставленных коэффициентов Пиннакл относительно предложений других букмекеров можно, в частности, сформулировав приведенную ниже гипотезу и проведя тест.

Итак, насколько верны прогнозы Pinnacle по ставкам на футбольные матчи? После чего перед использованием 5-периодной скользящей средней для сглаживания отклонения данных подсчитываются фактические доходы по ставкам с интервалом ожидаемого возврата 0,01 например, 0,98, 0,99, 1,00, 1,01 и.

Данные наносят на диаграмму рассеивания, приведенную ниже, причем мало и сильно ожидаемые возвраты по ставкам, для которых по вполне понятным причинам имеется гораздо меньше данных, удалены. Корреляция между ожидаемыми и наблюдаемыми доходами по ставкам очень высокая и составляет по сути Давайте рассмотрим обратную ситуацию.

На этот раз предположим, что другие букмекеры предсказали коэффициенты без учета маржипредставляющие точный показатель истинной вероятности результатов. Давайте узнаем. В этом случае корреляция между ожидаемыми и фактическими возвратами полностью отсутствует. Суть в том, что коэффициенты от четырех остальных букмекеров, используемые для анализа, в среднем не предоставляют никакого значительного показателя истинной вероятности результата в сравнении с коэффициентами Пиннакл.

Именно коэффициенты Пиннакл представляют точный показатель. Предположительно, этому есть два возможных объяснения.

Стратегии на лайв ставках в букмекерских конторах

Возможно, другие букмекеры не знают, как правильно формировать коэффициенты. Очевидно, что это сомнительный вывод, учитывая продолжительный успех таких букмекеров. Также можно предположить, что букмекеры намеренно смещают коэффициенты не в пользу эффективности рынка, продвигая таким образом собственные бизнес-модели.

В модели формирования коэффициентов Пиннакл используется принцип коллективного мнения, а также привлекаются хорошо осведомленные игроки для закрепления результата.